Wildfire smoke that drifted across much of Manitoba is forecast to thin by Friday, but Environment and Climate Change Canada cautions residents that smoky conditions could return while fires persist in Manitoba and neighbouring provinces.
Short-term clearing, long-term uncertainty
Forecaster Robyn Dyck said the current pattern should push much of the smoke out of the province in the short term, as a low-pressure system moves through and winds shift. However, Dyck warned that a ridge of high pressure and ongoing blazes to the north, as well as in Ontario and Saskatchewan, leave the door open for renewed smoke later in the summer.
"Unfortunately, this is the season," Dyck said. "The fires, they're not going anywhere quickly."
In Winnipeg, the air quality health index (AQHI) registered at 10+ — classified as a very high risk — at 9 a.m. on Friday. By 10 a.m. the index had fallen to 7 (high risk). Environment Canada projected the AQHI would drop to 4 (moderate risk) by Friday night and to 3 (low risk) on Saturday.
Who should take precautions
Health officials advise limiting strenuous outdoor activity when the AQHI reaches the higher categories. People most at risk include:
- children,
- older adults,
- people with respiratory conditions such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
When the index hits about 7, Environment Canada recommends staying indoors where possible and wearing a mask if going outside is necessary.
How to check forecasts
Environment Canada posts air-quality forecasts on its website. The seven-day weather pages include a link to a two-day AQHI forecast and indicate when smoke is expected — typically when the AQHI reaches the 4–6 range and above. Dyck said the direction and speed of winds over coming days will determine whether smoky episodes recur.
| Time | AQHI | Health category |
|---|---|---|
| 9 a.m. (Winnipeg) | 10+ | Very high risk |
| 10 a.m. | 7 | High risk |
| Friday night (forecast) | 4 | Moderate risk |
| Saturday (forecast) | 3 | Low risk |
Residents can use the Environment Canada site to monitor updates and local forecasts. Those with health concerns should follow guidance from public-health officials and consider reducing outdoor exposure during higher-risk periods.
While a temporary clearing is expected, the combination of numerous active wildfires and shifting wind patterns means smoky air could return later in the season.
