Prince Edward Island’s building boom is expected to ease after reaching unusually high levels in 2025, according to provincial forecasts released this week by BuildForce Canada. The report covers the period from 2026 to 2035 and warns that while activity will remain above long‑term norms, the volume of work and related employment will decline from recent peaks.
Residential sector set to contract before recovering
Residential construction entered the forecast period at an elevated level, supported by strong population growth and a surge in demand for multi‑unit dwellings. However, BuildForce projects a pullback through to 2028, driven in part by recent federal changes to immigration policy that cut inflows of permanent and non‑permanent residents.
The net result: by 2035 residential employment on the Island is expected to be about 9 per cent lower than in 2025, with the steepest reductions concentrated in work related to new‑housing construction (down 26 per cent from 2025 levels).
“Residential construction activity in Prince Edward Island has been significantly elevated in the years leading up to, and immediately following, the COVID‑19 pandemic,” said Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Although our forecast is calling for residential construction levels to cycle down from those peaks, they remain nonetheless above historical norms through to 2035.”
Non‑residential activity also expected to moderate
Non‑residential construction also began the forecast period at high levels. The sector was boosted in 2025 by major engineering work, including large utilities projects and initiatives to expand electricity capacity. BuildForce’s outlook indicates that these elevated levels will moderate during the coming decade.
- Drivers of 2025 peaks: strong multi‑unit housing demand and major engineering projects.
- Key headwinds: reduced immigration flows and a natural step‑down from elevated post‑pandemic activity.
- Employment outlook: overall construction employment to fall from peak levels but remain above historical averages through 2035.
What this means locally
For Islanders, the forecast suggests a period where contractors, tradespeople and suppliers may face a tighter labour market as demand eases from 2025 highs. Municipalities and developers could see project pipelines slow or shift focus, while policymakers may need to consider measures to support worker retention and skills development if jobs decline in specific sub‑sectors such as new housing.
| Indicator | Projected change by 2035 (vs. 2025) |
|---|---|
| Residential employment | -9% |
| Employment in new housing | -26% |
BuildForce’s reports for Prince Edward Island were funded in part by the federal Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program and examine both the residential and non‑residential construction outlooks through to 2035. They provide a framework for industry leaders and governments to plan for a transition from the uncommonly high activity seen in 2025 to a more moderate, though still above‑normal, level of construction later in the decade.
Local builders and municipal officials will be watching the coming years closely for signs of slowing project starts and potential workforce pressures as activity levels recalibrate.
