Keeping thousands of National Guard personnel in Washington, D.C., through early 2029 could drive costs toward $4 billion, yet researchers report no clear evidence the deployment has reduced violent crime, homicides or gun-related offences.
Study findings and scope
The analysis, published by the Center for American Progress, examined deployments of Guard troops in Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and Memphis. Using multiple analytic approaches, the study sought to determine whether a highly visible Guard presence altered crime trends already underway.
Researchers concluded the presence of the Guard did not produce a measurable acceleration in the decline of violent crime. While they found some indications the deployment may have reduced certain opportunistic property offences, the study said there was no detectable effect on:
- violent crime
- homicides
- gun victimizations
“This was never about reducing crime, especially not violent crime,”
— Chandler Hall, author of the study.
Local data cited
The report cites Washington police figures to illustrate ongoing violence since the Guard’s high-profile deployment. Since Sept. 9, 2025, city police reported:
| Measure | Count |
|---|---|
| Violent crimes | 2,158 |
| Homicides | 77 |
| Gun crimes | 787 |
Overall violent crime reported so far this year was up about 2% compared with the prior period, according to the police data referenced in the study.
Political and fiscal context
The Guard remained in the capital after a deployment that followed headline-making unrest. Supporters of an extended presence say it enhances security and deters disorder; critics counter that the highly visible military footprint has not demonstrably improved public safety outcomes while imposing heavy costs on taxpayers. President Donald Trump has publicly asserted that the city became markedly safer after the deployment, saying at one public appearance that it was “virtually crime-free.”
The study’s authors caution policymakers to weigh the financial burden — approaching $4 billion if troops remain through a second presidential term — against evidence of utility in reducing serious violent crime. The analysis of multiple cities and the use of separate statistical tests were designed to detect whether Guard deployments accelerated pre-existing crime declines; the authors report those signals were not found.
The findings add to an ongoing debate about the role of military forces in domestic public safety, oversight of federal deployments within U.S. cities, and the allocation of limited public funds for law enforcement and prevention programs.
— Angela Ruiz, Crime & Courts Reporter
