Homicide in the United States has fallen markedly—about 18% through May 2026—in a nationwide sample encompassing more than 580 police agencies and over 122 million residents, according to a recent update to a U.S. Crime Index cited by analysts monitoring national trends. The downturn, which began in the second half of 2022 and continued through 2023 and 2024, has persisted into this year and appears to be broad-based across regions and political jurisdictions.
Declines span jurisdictions despite differing policies
Analysts observing the trend say the reduction is not confined to any single state or city. Jurisdictions with reputations for both stricter and more reform-oriented prosecution policies have experienced decreases. The drop also coincides with a period of reduced police staffing in many places, distinguishing the current episode from the 1990s, when many departments expanded personnel alongside falling crime. Because the pattern is so widespread, experts caution against attributing it to any single local initiative.
Political credit elusive as downward trend spans administrations
Observers note the decline began in 2023 and has continued—and possibly accelerated—through a change in presidential administrations, complicating efforts to link the trend to a single national political agenda. The pattern has been visible in red, blue and purple states, adding to the challenge of isolating one policy regime as the driver.
Assessing familiar explanations—and their limits
Several hypotheses have been raised. Some analysts point to more proactive policing in recent years as a candidate explanation, though the current evidence base is described as inconclusive. Others have argued that substantial post-pandemic public spending—on programs both related and unrelated to crime reduction—may have contributed, by stabilizing communities and services. Yet many of those supports have since wound down, and the decline in homicide has continued month after month, narrowing the explanatory power of that factor on its own.
New paper tests an ‘entropy’ lens
Amid the debate, a recent pre-print study by researchers Scott Mourtgos and Ian Adams advances a unifying idea: that rising entropy—framed as a shift in the order and predictability of social systems—could be playing a major role in the downturn. The manuscript has not been peer-reviewed. The authors draw on the concept of entropy from information theory and physics as a way to think about large-scale societal changes that may influence criminal activity.
“the degree of disorder or uncertainty in a system”
That is how Merriam–Webster broadly defines entropy. In the crime context, the paper’s framing suggests that as the broader system becomes more ordered or predictable—through a confluence of factors rather than a single policy—offending and victimization may decline. While the approach is unconventional for criminology, it aims to account for why crime has fallen across varied policy environments and during a period without clear, sector-wide increases in police staffing.
Why the breadth of the decline matters
Because the pattern is geographically widespread and has persisted through policy shifts and fiscal changes, it challenges explanations built around single levers. If no one program, prosecutorial stance or staffing model maps neatly onto the trajectory, then multi-causal or systemic accounts warrant scrutiny. The entropy framing is one such attempt, though it remains to be tested rigorously and compared against traditional models that incorporate policing strategies, economic conditions, community investments and demographic change.
Data scope and caveats
The cited Crime Index aggregates reporting from a substantial—but not complete—set of U.S. agencies. As with any interim indicator, figures can be revised as more departments submit data. Analysts caution that the 18% estimate refers to the sampled jurisdictions through May 2026 rather than a definitive nationwide tally. Even so, the consistency of declines reported across the sample is notable.
- Magnitude: Homicide estimated down about 18% through May 2026 in the sample.
- Coverage: More than 580 agencies representing over 122 million people.
- Pattern: Declines observed across jurisdictions with differing political and prosecutorial approaches.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Homicide change (through May 2026) | ~18% decrease |
| Agencies in sample | 580+ |
| Population covered | 122M+ |
What comes next
The search for causes will continue as researchers test whether the entropy hypothesis adds explanatory power beyond established factors. For policymakers, the breadth of the decline is a reminder to evaluate compound effects—how policing, social spending, and broader post-pandemic adjustments might interact. For the public, the takeaway is twofold: the drop in homicide appears real across a large share of the country, and the race to explain it remains open, with peer-reviewed verification needed before any single theory is embraced.
